Reviewing Canadian Education in 2030
Introduction
This paper is written from a speculative future position, imagining how certain research and situations occurring currently might affect education in ten years time. While this is reasoned using research, anything speculative is simply that: speculation. At the same time, the hope is that this might provide a bit of a window into how the current educational landscape might play out in an effort to envision a potentially desirable future.
Overview
Over the past 50 years, much has been written regarding the various gaps, including education, between urban and rural Canada. Looking back, COVID-19 served as a catalyst in shaping the learning landscape of Canadian K-12 schools we have in 2030. Choices made by the federal and provincial governments prior to and during 2020 regarding broadband internet and technology exacerbated the inequalities which existed, and continue to exist, between urban and rural students. Combined with vaccine production delays (Jeyanathan et al., 2020), this created a perfect storm of sorts through which we have been navigating until now. In this essay I will review some history, choices that were made, as well as the impact they have had on students in urban and rural settings within the past 10 years.
How Did We Get Here?
Given the pre-existing Digital Divide between urban and rural schools at the time (Koch, 2020; Weeden & Kelly, 2020), as well as between urban and rural students (Looker & Thiessen, 2003), it is important to understand how the pandemic shaped our education landscape today. Statistics Canada, for instance, noted in 2003 that these gaps existed since at least the 1980’s and, despite some evidence to the contrary, the general perception was that these gaps affected educational achievement (Alasia, 2003, p. 2). Alasia noted, for instance, that the average years of schooling for those 25 to 54 in rural Canada grew from 11.8 years to 13.3 years between 1981 and 1996. Interestingly, these gains did not translate to a substantial increase in post-secondary education when compared to urban Canadians (p. 17). In 2002, for instance, many provinces (most notably those in Atlantic Canada) reported rural students’ reading levels were, “significantly lower than the Canadian average” (Allen & Cartwright, 2002, p. 11). At the same time, rural students were noted as being less likely to have access to computers and the internet at home, accessing computers and the internet more in a school setting (pp. 14-15).
Key differentiators between these students were differences in their communities, particularly in, “educational attainment [among] adults in the community, community employment rates, [and] the educational requirements and earning capacity of jobs in the community” (Allen & Cartwright, 2002, p. 23). With millions of lost jobs across Canada (Canada’s jobless rate soars, 2020), mandatory lockdowns (Russell, 2020), as well as multiple outbreak waves (Blatchford, 2020), the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a heavy national focus on technology-based schooling, particularly resulting in a boost to the Learning Management Systems (LMS) market (Silcoff, 2020) as educators sought to facilitate online and blended learning programs. This led to an increase in technology use throughout Canada at a time when many of the disparities identified by Allen and Cartwright had been exacerbated by COVID-19, resulting in strains to the internet infrastructure, particularly in rural Canada. While the federal government insisted that they were investing heavily in order to resolve this (Canada, n.d.), actual investments (Government of Canada, 2020; Over 10,100 Households, 2020) fell woefully short of the $7 billion noted in by the CRTC as needed in order to provide adequate internet access to rural and Northern Canada (Ruimy, 2018). This shortfall continued throughout the 2020’s and, as the urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic faded, so did the government’s urgency to address this divide. The larger internet providers, who were already reticent to invest in rural internet services, citing the high cost of roll-outs and lowered broadband internet rates mandated by the CRTC (Koch, 2020), this resulted in rural communities continuing to lag behind urban centres in both access to digital infrastructures and economic opportunities.
Stopgaps Become Solutions
In order to address these gaps and provide students with effectual learning, provincial governments began to look for alternative solutions. The New Brunswick government attempted initially to address the COVID situation by putting laptops into the hands of all high school students throughout the province (Laptop Subsidy Program, n.d.). This was found to take care of the immediate needs of student access (and rural students in particular) to digital devices in a time where school access, and access to devices, was limited. As a result, and as the pandemic dragged on, more provinces implemented similar measures as these programs, viewing them initially as a stopgap. While rural students were still hampered by a lack of infrastructure, particularly as the nation entered the second and third waves of the pandemic, it provided a method for students to continue to study amid school closures (COVID-19 Case, 2020).
At the same time, and in an attempt to turn the lack of infrastructure into a positive, Indigenous communities (Fournier, 2020), as well as students in B.C. (Vancouver Teacher Praises Benefits, 2020) and Ontario (Bridge & Common, 2020) began to explore incorporating outdoor learning into the school curriculum. Inspired by writings and research by Allert et al. (2020), this was further framed as aligning educational policies with climate policy (Bieler et al., 2017), particularly the integration of climate change into K-12 curricula, while endeavouring to create a more equitable educational environment for Indigenous students (Hill & Redwing Saunders, 2007). Classes were at once socially distanced, engaging experiences that ranged on a wide array of topics regarding science, the environment, Indigenous studies and more. Similar to the digital device subsidy programs, implementation became more widespread across the country due to the cost-effectiveness of large-scale implementation. As the benefits became more widely recognized, by 2026 urban schools began implementing similar programs.
These two phenomena in particular have led to an impact on post-secondary institutions. In particular, there has been a considerable increase in student applications and graduates in the trades and climate change-related job creation. Some institutions such as Fanshawe College, with its focus on innovation (What Does It Mean for Students?, 2019), are leading the way in preparing students for technology-equipped, climate-centric jobs where environmental resources may be harnessed in sustainable ways. Additionally, these changes have begun to assist in addressing trades shortages previously reported within Canada (Komarnicki, 2012). This has in turn assisted in increasing job and economic opportunities within rural Canada.
Conclusions
While still hampered by rural connectivity issues, there is a marked increase in technology-based businesses within rural Canada when compared to 2020. Despite the lack of infrastructure, digital device subsidies and the inclusion of climate change and Indigenous culture through outdoor education have worked in tandem to offer alternative learning avenues for rural students. Interestingly, these changes have influenced tertiary learning, leading to new job opportunities and improved socioeconomics throughout rural Canada. As we look forward to 2040, we do need to continue to correct remaining disparities, particularly through an injection of funds into infrastructure. In the meantime the decisions made both during and since the pandemic in a sector that is traditionally seen as being slow moving (Weller, 2020, p. 77) have created frameworks that appear to benefit more Canadians than was previously the case.
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