In the absence of a good fortune-telling app, one guess is as good as another, so I thought I would look at long cycles (social cycle theory), as described by George Modelski (Harkavy, 1999), but using education rather than economics and studying how education technology might be related to Kondratiev waves in technology life cycles (Ayres, 1988). Specifically, I want to discuss China’s possible hegemonic accession as a potential defining trait of the 21st century (BBC, 2020). I also want to understand how an education-based trade and information war, rather than traditional war could lift Africa out of the prison of poverty using Chinese support (Fredua-Kwarteng, 2020). Given that some theories suggest that our next technological revolution with be in information (Hilbert, 2020), countries that invest heavily in education and technology should be able to influence world power.
In 2030:
Social chaos reigned in the democratic west from 2020-2026, with battling factions of pro- and anti- vaccine groups arguing, mostly online for the first couple of years. Their arguments finally spilled over into street riots in many countries in 2026 that many governments put down by force. In the meantime, China doggedly continued its technological expansion by the creation of more affordable technology that was distributed, along with much-needed vaccines, across Africa. Sino-African relations, most importantly the inclusion of African students in Chinese universities, grew exponentially. The Chinese economy, once estimated to surpass that of the USA by 2028 (BBC, 2020), overtook it in 2025 due to the negative debt ratings incurred by western countries after massive COVID relief spending decimated their budgets. This left little money in western university coffers for higher education R&D for technology improvements.
References:
Ayres, R. U. (1988). Barriers and breakthroughs: An “expanding frontiers” model of the technology-industry life cycle. Technovation, 7(2), 87–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-4972(88)90041-7
Chinese economy to overtake US “by 2028” due to Covid. (2020, December 26). BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55454146
Fredua-Kwarteng, E. (2020). What is China’s higher education agenda in Africa? (n.d.). University World News. Retrieved October 13, 2021, from https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20201120110117700
Harkavy, R. E. (1999). Long cycle theory and the hegemonic powers’ basing networks. Political Geography, 18(8), 941–972. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0962-6298(99)00033-5
Hilbert, M. (2020). Digital technology and social change: The digital transformation of society from a historical perspective. Dialogues in Clinical Neuroscience, 22(2).
Hi Corie,
Thanks for writing this contemporary perspective. It is a little frightening to predict this type of future within this social, educational, and political context but it feels like the right prediction. Do you sometimes wonder what the world would be without Covid and if this prediction would have the same impact on educational technology?
Thanks Stephanie! From my own experience at work, I think we would have gotten there eventually, but COVID has certainly accelerated the technology aspect of a lot of things, not least educational technology. There are some really interesting articles that I’ve already come across that are showing that the pandemic has sort of “kick started” some other ideas, too, and I’m looking forward to seeing how my predictions play out!
Corie,
This is a fascinating perspective, and a terrifying, yet likely realistic, prediction of the future to come. I am particularly intrigued by the idea of a “education-based trade and information war”. If the next technological revolution will be in information, I wonder about the implications for Canada, and the consequences as well. Are public education systems and higher education institutions up to the task of preparing citizens to engage in an education-based information war against nations that prioritize pouring resources into education and technology?
Your speculations on the future hit the mark with some of the bigger questions I have had swirling in my brain over the past six months.
– What is the value of education in Canadian society in general?
– Is education a privilege afforded more and more to a small and elite group, rather than an accessible right for all?
– How does a society strike a balance between morality, concern for others, science-based knowledge, and freedom of speech? Is that even possible?
I am super excited to read your finished work. Thank you for the fascinating and thought-provoking preview!
Amber
Thanks Amber! I went with the idea of an information and tech war because, as someone who works in the nuclear non-proliferation space, I think there’s an acknowledgement that nuclear war isn’t survivable for anyone. The battle will be over control of information, as we’re seeing now in the science debates.
Based on the OECD results for the PISA assessments done internationally, Canada is in a really good space, especially compared to US students. Our students’ performance is immediately behind that of Chinese students and well ahead of Americans. Combined with our existing Pan Pacific relationships, we can hopefully survive a decline in American power and potential shift to Asian influence, specifically in education approach. I’m looking to explore how the Chinese educational approach can more heavily influence educational approaches in Africa. Lord knows, the last couple hundred years haven’t served Africa well. Maybe the Chinese can help in a better way?
I concur that this is a fascinating perspective on potential futures. I’m curious to know which aspects you plan to delve into. Will you touch on what types of technologies China might distribute across Africa? Am I correct in assuming that the incorporation of African students would be primarily or even exclusively via online education? Would you anticipate substantial progress in the use of technology in the post-secondary educational contexts?
Lots of potential avenues to pursue, and I’m excited to see your final assignment!
~Alisha
Thanks Alisha! That’s exactly where I was going with that – Chinese tech, with its relatively better affordability and perhaps fewer limitations on countries to which the devices can be exported/imported (compared to US tech extra-jurisdictional law), might be the key that unlocks African power internationally. Also, there are currently around 80,000 African students who physically attend university in China. I would anticipate that many more could attend virtually in the future as access and cost improve.
Thank you for this activity6-focused post, Corie. The dystopic elements you describe here are frightening on many levels, but you also give a nod to hope for some. I look forward to seeing where this piece of writing goes. I’m echoing Alisha’s comments here, but in short, not that you provided us with the background: What will you focus on? What aspect of education & learning technologies? Which region? China? Africa? US? Canada? A small college in BC? A particular technology? No need to answer right now, but something to reflect upon.
Thanks George! I was actually aiming for hope, in the sense that the past few hundred years haven’t been so great for African students. Technology that leads to increased levels of education and strategic partnerships with a different kind of superpower might benefit them in more positive ways.
I wanted to focus on what life for an African higher ed student attending (physically in China or virtually from Ghana) a Chinese university might look like. I got really captured by the fictional case study of Kumar having his own tablet and more stable internet access in the article “The future of ed tech is here, it’s just not evenly distributed” (Maughan, 2014). I ended up down a rabbit hole that landed me in Africa, rather than India. Technology used by students is going to change again I think, and it’ll be driven by alternatives to US technologies that are SO hamstrung by US trade laws.
Huawei, for example, has been stockpiling microchips and China has struck some mining agreements with African countries that could bolster its ability to manufacture alternatives to US technology. This would permit African students more stable access, which is the key to learning that we’ve been able to benefit from here.
Corrie,
I think this is a very exciting topic with all the focus that has been put on Africa recently and unfortunately its resources. I do know that the race is on in China and the US for Ai supremacy, I wonder if you think that China’s sudden population plateau, climate change, and housing crash will impact its goal for global dominance. It will be interesting to see what happens with the global microchip shortage and whether or not China will be able to produce microchips with faster processing time than that of Taiwan or the US. My understanding is that they are a few generations behind the US and even further than Taiwan but catching up fast. I am excited to hear what happens next Corie!